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May Forecast
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2011-04-28 09:34:43

The continuing weakness of the dollar has softened the higher oil prices and with winter over, diesel refinery prices have dropped back below unleaded prices.

By my calculations USA refinery prices are running at 58c for diesel & 60c for unleaded. European prices should theorectically be about 3c higher due to higher brent oil prices however this calculates to a forecourt price of €1.44 for diesel & €1.59 for unleaded.   

I suspect some cross subsidisation of pricing or european refineries charging more for diesel and less for unleaded due to the higher motoring demand for diesle over here. So best guess is diesel will remain steady or drop back just a little and unleaded to increase to €1.55+ 

 



mcaul
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2011-05-05 11:24:00

OK, so I haven't been 100% correct in the past (I I was I'd be retired by now!), but I suspect a top has arrived in oil prices and that we will now start to see a down trend over the coming weeks with a target of sub $95 by end of July. At the same time, the dollar should stay weak due to US monetary policy. If this scenario pans out and there's no further conflict in the middle east the next move on prices will be downward.  


vickers209
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2011-05-05 13:42:30

hope so nowhere in wicklow under 150 for petrol


mcaul
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2011-05-05 18:08:42

I didn't expect the market to drop that quickly. $7 down in a day. Hopefully it continues. Dollar up ,but net drop is about 5%. Assuming prices don't jump back up tomorrow, Pump prices should fall 3c-4c from about 20th of the month.  


mcaul
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2011-05-06 12:00:08

Assuming the price drops from the last couple of days are sustained, we can predict substantial forecourt prices from about 20th - 23rd May along with drops in kerosene.

Cuts of up to 10c at the pump are now possible as the net euro drop in prices has been about 11% since Monday.   

 


mcaul
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2011-05-06 12:01:22

that should read "substantial CUTS in forecourt prices"


tarabuses
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2011-05-06 13:16:03

Still seeing petrol price increases yesterday and today.


mcaul
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2011-05-06 14:25:22

@tarabuses - you'll still see increases for a few days yet. Prices spiked to $126 last week and this is currently feeding in to pumps. The big drop only happened yesterday and it will be 2 weeks before that hits the pumps. Hence my prediction of a sudden drop around 20th - 23rd of this month  


vickers209
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2011-05-07 12:29:35

Will the 1% drop in the euro against the dollar have an effect on fuel prices?


mcaul
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2011-05-11 10:54:23

bad news is since Monday, oil has risen back over $117 negating much of the drop seen last week. Adding the 3% rise in the US dollar and the drop in forecourt prices will be a lot smaller than originally thought and more in the line of 2c / 3c than the hoped for 8c.


Anjlisharma
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2017-04-05 07:22:03

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