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Market continues stable pattern
forecast
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2011-11-03 15:09:42

Brent oil prices have remained relatively stable over the past few weeks. Also the difference between the lower quality US oil and Brent has become smaller.

We don't see any particular event that will cause any changes in the current price range, so its really as is for the time being with the bias still being towards slight lowering of prices. 

Diesel has risen recently as demand for diesel fuel always increases in the winter and the refinery changes its charges to reflect that.  



kelly
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2011-11-17 16:27:00

diesel prices rising daily when will it stop?


certacito
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2011-11-19 00:42:42

I have seen recently Diesel prices consistently rising to now overtake Petol prices at some stations. Have i missed something or is there something going on which i am missing at the moment. Even in the so called independent stations prices are rising a pace. Brent prices maybe stable at the moment but that's not translating to the retailers is it. Thank god for Pumps.ie but then again this site can only go so far to hilite whats going on, after that what next. "Iran gets invaded!!!"


mcaul
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2011-11-19 14:11:03

certacito - yep diesel always rises in winter as demand for diesel grows hugely due to the amount of diesel powered power statons in the world plus the demand for home heating.

Its easy to refine diesel from a part of the raw oil, but more difficult to refine other parts of the raw oil into diesel, hence the overall refining cost increases on diesel type products.  


sobanek
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2011-11-20 02:19:08

@mcaul that's total BS. This time of the year in 2010, there was a 9c difference between diesel and petrol. Diesel only went up by around 2c not freaking 7...

148.9 diesel, 145.9 petrol at the Top station in Newbridge.


bob1916
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2011-11-20 22:01:15

I own a small station in wexford and i paid four cent more for my diesel than petrol but both products coming down nearly two cent wed night.If your getting diesel for less than 1.43 just make sure your getting the miles out of it 


irishrockall
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2011-11-23 20:47:34

Same old story. Prices quick to go up but slow to come down.

10 Reasons for price hikes :

1 : Euro ( a.k.a Deutchmark  ) is weak.

2 : Dollar is strong.

3 : The winter is cold and /or wet.

4 : Iraq has been invaded.

5 : A damaged oil well in the North Sea.

6 : A hurricane on the Eastern seaboard of America.

7 : Martial Law in Eygpt

8 : Increased Solar Flares activity.

9 : Because the OPEC cartell feel like it.

10 : Sandstorm in Saudi.

Feel free to add your own. All suggestions are just as plausible as the next.


mcaul
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2011-11-24 22:49:12

@sobanek - just a reminder. i have ZERO interests in the oil / fuel business. I do this just to give heads up.

If you don't like the explanation that's fine, but don't call it BS unless you have another valid and verifiable reason.

 

btw. Top Newbridge is 1.47 for diesel and 1.46 for unleaded.


mcaul
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2011-11-24 22:56:02

here's a great article explaining the ups and downs of fuel pricing - diesel up in Autumn, down in late winter, up again in spring, down in summer. - Same trends for many years.

http://www.dieselserviceandsupply.com/diesel_fuel_prices.aspx


sobanek
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2011-11-25 00:24:20

@mcaul yes I do, the freaking history of the prices - diesel was never less than 2c cheaper during winter time or any time for that matter.


mcaul
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2011-11-25 23:19:26

@sobanek - that's not a verifiable reason. That's historic pricing. The REASON diesel is higher is due to demand which is due to increased transport, increased home heating useage and increased requirement by power stations. Zilch you or I can do about it. 


Shades799
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2011-11-28 10:14:26

@mccaul I'll try to have a rationale argument about this, even though it will be hard as I'm as angry as sobanek appears.

If the REASON diesel is higher this year is due to demand, are you saying that this year there has been a relative 7c increase in demand compared to the previous years? And that this has happened during a mild winter so far and a time when the EU economies are moving back into recession which would affect exports (i.e. transportation requirements\costs) etc...?


Lancelot
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2011-11-29 11:07:32

@Shades and @sobanek
It's well known on this site that mcaul is just a regular punter who taught himself how fuel is priced from barrel to pump and kindly shares his knowledge through this forum.
Rather than getting "angry" and accusing him of talking "BS" why don't you utilise your obvious intellects and do likewise.
I'm sure the other readers of this site would appreciate your insights and some reasonable debate based on facts.

 


Shades799
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2011-11-29 13:34:14

@Lancelot

My comment is based on fact, this is the first time I can remember (if ever, that bit I don't know so won't say it's a fact), that Diesel has been more expensive than petrol. I've also provided figures to support this assertation.

I also stated that "I'll try to have a rationale argument about this", which was an attempt to show @mccaul that I wasn't angry at him, but the situation. If that didn't come across then let me re-iterate, I am not accusing @mccaul of anything and appreciate is knoweldge of the situation and accept it is far greater than mine.

Therefore, can anyone please tell me what has changed this year, compared to all the years before, that has caused the price of Diesel to surpass petrol.


jonnybangbang
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2011-11-29 16:01:34

since november of last year hasn't the sale of Diesel vehicles supassed that of Unleaded vehicles?

this was because of the lower raod tax on Diesel vehicels due to better emissions. Does this have a bearing on the increase in demand for Diesel?

I looked up on Historical price and i think it was 2008 the last time Diesel was more expensive than Unleaded. 

National average prices for 2008-11-18:
Petrol:
108.9c
Diesel:
109.9c


mcaul
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2011-11-29 21:19:20

shades - no problem with arguing the point. I hate the price rises as much as anyone, but thankfully getting new motor in jan that will do close to 70mpg, (currently 25mpg jeep! - €200 a week in fuel sometimes!)

Chinese & Indian economies + the fact USA is doing OK. The amount of fuel we use in Ireland is unnoticeable in worl terms so nothing we do here will ever have an effect on diesle prices except the million to one chane the government will bring duties down (FF have a better chance of overall majority than that happening)

China is still powering ahead. A lot of power in china is still derived from diesel powered stations, same in India. In the USA diesle is used for heavy transport - christmas delivery of goods etc.

We'll see prices drop back in New Year in comparison to diesel, but in the meantime, we have to bear it.


mcaul
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2011-11-29 21:21:05

skuse the spelling - tiny keyboard. last sentence should read "unleaded"


sobanek
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2011-11-29 22:47:08

I'm not getting angry at mcaul :-)

I do think it's ridiculous though, how diesel's become more expensive than petrol, but then again, 79% sales in 2011 being diesel cars didn't really help.


jonnybangbang
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2011-11-30 09:18:36

will it drop back in January? will the budget not erode any potential decrease  in price?

 

Talk of raising the Carbon tax, and of course the VAT rate is already a certainty. heard on the radio that we will probably be looking at diesel and unleaded of around €1.53 (153cpl)


mcaul
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2011-12-02 20:41:43

The pre-tax cost normally drops back in January - problem for us is 2% vat + possible carbon tax hike. Though I think carbon tax won't be increased on oil products because price is so high.

 

@sobanek - even if every car on the irish roads was diesel, it would make no difference. The commodity market is world driven, so a tiny island with 4.6m people doesn't affect anything. Don't forget about 85-90c from every litre is tax of some form - only 60c or thereabouts is cost of product & retail costs.


kenny5
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2011-12-07 22:41:51

Good diesel / bad diesel??

 Bob1916 says:

"If your getting diesel for less than 1.43 just make sure your getting the miles out of it ..."

 

I get my diesel from one of the national top 10 stations and over the past few weeks i have noticed my consumption going up by >10%.... didnt think too much about it until i read this comment..... Does all diesel come from the same refinery?? -- is laundering the only concern- or is there such thing as good diesel / bad diesel??


kenny5
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2011-12-13 09:54:56

What is a litre??

I just switched my refill (diesel) from one of the cheapest suppliers to one of the most expensive. -- It turned out that it took 4-5% less fuel than usual !!!

-That equates to approx 6c - more than the price difference between the two!!

 

Is the whole concept of fuel price, down to how little fuel a retailer can call a litre??

From a very quick reading of the EU legislation on pump accuracy, it appears that the

error should be less than 0.5%  -- and i doupt if either supplier was over overmeasuring!!

http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2004:135:0001:0080:EN:PDF

 

It looks like we can add another variable into the optimisation!!

See also:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/0824/1224302897578.html

 

 


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