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Oil Prices Stable - Forecourt Prices Rise
forecast
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2012-01-17 09:08:49

Over the past 6 months and also in the near furture, brent oil prices have remained very stable and mostly within a $5 deviance from $110.  This has been one of the most stable period for oil prices for many years, yet in the past 6-8 weeks the forecourt prices have risen by 10c-12c.

But before blaming the hardpressed forecourt owners who take an average of just 5c cut of the €1.55 average we are currently paying lets see what has happened since October.

1. The Budget. - Added 1.4c petrol / 1.6c diesel to carbon tax on Dec 6th, it also added 2% vat on Jan 1st. - Total extra taxes approx 4.5c / litre

2. US Dollar / Euro. All through the summer and up til October, the average exchange rate was about $1.43 / €1. Yesterday it dropped below 1.27 - that's an 11% difference in just 3 months and a good chunk of the drop was from end of November. Fuel is bought in US dollars, so this added 11% to the ex tax price of fuel (approx 60c unleaded / 62c diesel) - about 6.5c + of course vat @23% making 8c.

So 8c of the recent increases are attributed to currency moves and 4.5c due to tax hikes - makes a total of 12.5c increase from the October averages of 1.43 & 1.45.

And with oil prices still stable and not looking to move much in the near term, the only potential change in prices will come from the exchange rate between the US dollar & the Euro. In the short term, this may bring some relief, but most commentators are suggesting mid 1.20's as the exchange rate in the medium term.    

 



tarabuses
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2012-01-17 13:52:49

Several stations in Dublin are now just 0.1c short of €1.60!


sobanek
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2012-01-18 13:42:39

It's just us getting screwed in the butthole. I wonder how much money the government makes on fuel taxes A DAY.

How can this country be in a recession? It's bullshit.


mcaul
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2012-01-18 18:37:55

sobanek - we're still about the EU average for fuel. In the UK, its hitting €1.70/litre, same in Holland, €1.90 in switzerland, 1.65 in portugal, greece, belgium, italy & finland.

cheapest is Poland at about 1.26, then a few in mid 1.30's   

and the government doesn't "make" from fuel taxes - it simply pays it out in other ways, from road building to social welfare, from hospital care to transport subsidies, from children's allowances to education.


Driver1
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2012-01-19 09:30:31

I finding it hard to see how pumps.ie is getting the average fuel price 154.9 Unl & 153.9 Diesel. Nearly all stations i've seen in around Dublin are 156.9 to 159.9 for unleaded!!


nedtango
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2012-01-19 14:08:22

Driver1 - it might be because the world doesn't revolve around Dublin??? Or that not all prices are up to date??


A2B
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2012-01-19 14:24:18

Driver 1- I'm assuming an average would be derived from 26 counties, some counties pay a lot more than others


shane26
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2012-01-19 16:18:07

just like the bin charges.lol


mcaul
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2012-01-19 17:37:29

still 1.51 / 1.52 for diesel in Newbridge, Kildare town & Athy areas, 1.53 - 1.55 for unleaded.


prof_frink
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2012-01-23 16:46:21

How about on this website we put a "Oil Price" widget that shows the current price per barrell but in euros by using the daily exchange ratio. This may lead to a greater understanding of the effect of EURO-DOLLAR rate on the pump price. For example back in 2008 we in Euroland were protected from the peak by the very strong euro to the dollar.


sobanek
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2012-02-02 00:34:42

It just keeps going up!!!!!!!!!!!!!


mcaul
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2012-02-06 14:15:17

yep - and it will go up another cent or two. One of the main european refineries went bust a few weeks ago due to massive pressure in refining margins. This has led to refineries charging a more comercial fee for refining and added about 2c to the litre. On top of that Brent has moved to $114.  


sobanek
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2012-02-06 23:43:04

Not posting this as an ad, but VV-TECH are going to be installing LPG conversions into cars and distribute LPG at astonishingly low €0.69 per litre!

I'm going to switch when I get a BMW 525i.


daithi_dearg
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2012-02-07 21:10:14

There's no understanding the increases you can see here the changes over 6 months:

http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEARCA:OIL

The low of 19 goes as far as 25 which is around about 20%.

I'm not certain but I'd say the fuel increases are closer to 50%.

Interesting comments about the currency changes. That's something I never considered but the difference you can't make sense of even with those differences.


weathergossip
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2012-02-15 20:04:44

I have a few spare dollars in the cupboard will that give me cheaper petrol.

Sligo at 160.9c petrol now

 


weathergossip
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2012-02-15 20:04:45

I have a few spare dollars in the cupboard will that give me cheaper petrol.

Sligo at 160.9c petrol now

 



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2012-02-17 16:33:24

woohoo, looking forward to seeing the prices shoot up in the next few days,oil now at $119.55 and euro at $1.31, 

iam guessing an increase of 2-4c.

just wondering has the average price of petrol ever been at €1.60 before on this site?

also looking back to the days when oil was $150 a barrell its sickening to think we were paying €1.36 p/l.

i recently regs. with platts.com and they give you everything from oil prices to refinery prices and there aint much difference between 2008 and now, its like and 6% increase far from what we are seeing.

they also held a report from irish consumer agency saying that irish pumps reacted very fast to speculation of oil prices going up and prices retracted slower than they should.

so what iam trying to say is;people here have been defending the petrol stations for far to long, refinery costs have gone up but not that much,our station react to news in the middle east faster than they do and when prices come down they take there time decreasing them also.i also know about the currency diffrence in 2008 it worked out about 8c more at the time.

idk maybe iam lossing my math skills all i know is its time something was done about it, jobs will contiune to be lost and people will suffer because of these ridiclous prices.

talk soon rant over


sobanek
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2012-02-17 20:25:21

July 2008:
Brent @ $146.87
1 EUR = 1.60 USD
Barrel = €92
1 Barrel of oil = 158.98 litres.
1 litre of oil = €0.58 per litre
Petrol = €1.34/litre average

February 2012:
Brent @ $119.50
1 EUR = 1.32 USD
Barrel = €90.53 - SO IT'S LESS
1 Barrel of oil = 158.98 litres
1 litre of oil = €0.57 per litre
Petrol = €1.57/litre average

So in conclusion: Oil is cheaper than it used to be in 2008 by 1 cent, and yet fuel is more expensive.

It went up 23c in taxes? I don't think so...
Someone's making a lot of money on this and I think it's either refineries or petrol stations themselves. And of course, speculators.
I'm organising a Facebook Group called "Occupy Gas Prices". You can look it up on Facebook right now. Like and share, if we get 100,000 followers, we'll make a petition to EXXON and other refineries to demand to lower the prices. Or we'll do official strikes.


shane26
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2012-02-18 19:54:09

looked for the group on facebook cant find it, post a link maybe


seanh00700
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2012-02-19 15:03:18

It's becoming a joke... Price in Cork no €163.9 !!!!!   we have to stop this !


sobanek
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2012-02-19 18:43:36

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Occupy-Gas-Prices/282232618473987

 

Join, share and of course, LIKE!


tarabuses
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2012-02-20 08:19:46

From an earlier posting:

"It went up 23c in taxes? I don't think so..."

Conor Faughnan of the AA said on radio this morning that fuel taxes are up 22c since October 2008.


sobanek
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2012-02-20 11:54:21

Somehow, I doubt that.


tarabuses
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2012-02-21 09:48:18

I saw the first petrol price on my watchlist above €1.60 this morning.   161.9 at Topaz, Taney Road - up 2c overnight.


weathergossip
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2012-02-21 22:53:21

Yeah its going to go up to 164.9 by March in a lot of places

Oil is at 122 dollars today

I wrote a blog on 7 ways to save money on petrol but not sure if im allowed to put links on this website but one of the ways is to refill your car when the petrol gauge is halfway. less vapour more fuel efficiency that filling on an empty tank.


vickers209
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2012-02-23 14:04:51

oil nearly at 125 dollars today


mcaul
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2012-02-23 16:40:50

In Euro terms, brent oil hit an all time high today of €93 per barrell. The EXCEEDS the price at the height of the oil price boom in 2008.

@ Sobanek - if you put raw unrefined oil into your engine, you'd get about 20 feet before the engine would be fecked.

The barrell of oil has to be transported from oil well to refinery where it gets refined into different grades and different products for petrol to jet engine oil to oils for candles & plastic bags. The cost of refining is about 6c per litre.

Then add taxes and then add vat.

The tax increase are very well documented 8c, (Dec 2008) 5c, (Dec 2009 I think)  4c, (carbon levy 2010) 1.6c,(carbon levy 2011) 1c (nat oil reserves levy 2010), + vat @ 23% on them = 23c  


aran36
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2012-03-01 18:24:00

1.4c Petrol Or 1.6c Diesel Extra Can Make A Big Diffrence. Let's Say Petrol Prices Are 157.9 To 159.3. For 20L Fuel Would Origanly Cost €31.58 But Would Now Cost €31.86!

... OK, It May Be Not Much Of A Diffrence. People Sometimes Illegally Buy Cheap Green Fuel For 110c/l And Get A Prison Sentence Or A Ban From Driving. Police Are Now Watchdogs To What Fuel Is In The Tanks, To Identify Crimanals. It's Rare, But You Might Have Watched Crimecall (It's On Once A Month On A Tuesday On RTE 1 And Usually Comes On At About 10:35 At Night) And On Some Occasions, The List Of Crimes Includes One Involving Fuel Stations And Green Fuel. (Used For Truckers Only) Now, As sobanek Said In Origanl Post (Acctually This Morning...)

@sobanek It Would Cost €12,000 To Buy A 2012 Model Car...

I Think sobanek Ment €30,000.

So There You Go. (END OF POST)


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