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More rises on the way
forecast
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2012-02-24 13:34:35

Since the end of January oil prices have broken out of their $5 deviation that had been the pattern for several months and broke substantially to the upside, with Brent currently at $123. In Euro terms, this matches the highs of 2008.

One of the causes it the continued issues with Iran whilst another cause is simple demand and not enough supply.

Analysts are divided on where oil will go from here, but the general consensus is there is very little downside pressure on prices in the near future.

What this means for the pumps is €1.60+ will become normal next week for unleaded and diesel will be just shy of €1.60.   

It really is becoming a case of cutting journeys and taking it easy on the pedals - you can save 30% of fuel by going constant 90/95km/hr on a motorway rather than 120km/hr. 



sobanek
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2012-02-24 22:15:55

It really is becoming a case of cutting journeys and taking it easy on the pedals - you can save 30% of fuel by going constant 90/95km/hr on a motorway rather than 120km/hr. 

Or instead let's make a protest and get fuel prices down. After all, it did rise by 23c in taxes since 2008!


goingpostal
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2012-02-25 09:34:22

"the general consensus is there is very little downside pressure on prices in the near future."

 

This is the bit that scares me. I wonder about upside pressure on prices and how much of that there will be?


mcaul
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2012-02-25 15:15:13

Its really all about the middle east and demand from China & India. Until China in particular slows down and Iran/Syria sort themselves out, there will be little to make the prices drop.

In the meantime, I agree 100% with Sobanek - keep it under 100kmh on the motorway and you'll save 30% on fuel.

Also, with the government getting extra 23% on every bit of the higher prices (via vat), it would give them a huge popularity lift by temporarily withdrawing the carbon tax for a period of 2 years or until prices drop back below 1.30.   

Maybe there should be a pumps.ie petition for such a move as its quite reasonable and not looking for something ridiculous - over to you Jon !! :)


hulkie
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2012-02-27 13:45:48

I'm all for a protest, but unfortunately we don't seem to have the same resilience as the french when it comes to a good ole blockade. A 2 year withdrawal of carbon duty seems like an idea mccaul. The idea of increasing duty and VAT at the same time seemed like economic suicide at the time, and it seems this has left a load of businesses in real bother. Several suppliers have recently put fuel surcharges to the likes of Donegal. This could become a trend that will be irreversible, and again the northwest gets even more isolated or should that be deserted?


mcaul
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2012-02-27 14:13:45

The increased vat won't affect business as its reclaimable, but it has affect motorists and the volume of retail fuel is set to drop by 7% this year (Topaz projections) This is entirely due to the high price of fuel as the jobs market is now steady.

For the government, it brings into play the law of diminishing returns - a possible 8c - 10c reduction at the forecourt, could stop the drop in demand and bring prices back under €1.50 and possibly under €1.40 if the market drops back a wee bit.

As the government takes almost 90c from a  litre of fuel, 7% drop in volume means almost 7c/litre drop in revenue for government.


aran36
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2012-02-29 18:49:10

Excellent, Yet Slow Tip, :forecast. Today's 2012 Models Have Increased Effincy With This Formula:

tanksize * (%full / 100) * mileage

Here Is An Example For Today's 2012 Cars:

80 * (100 / 100) * 25

Your Result? A Full Tank = 2000km Of Fuel.

Let's Say This Is Your Price: 159.9/l

For Each 100km (5% Of Your Fuel Tank) You Would Waste 8c Of Fuel!

May I Reccomend Buying Fuel Efficint Cars? 100km Of Fuel = 8c! What A Deal! (For Today's Fuel Efficient Cars. A Standard 2006 Model Would Waste About 15c/100km)


sobanek
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2012-03-01 08:06:36

And then you pay another €12,000 to actually buy the car itself.

I've done research and have proved to a lot of people, it's cheaper to buy a 2002 BMW M5 that has a 5.0 litre V8, pay its 1680 tax for two years and fuel it for €80 per week.

The M5 still turned out to be cheaper than buying a 2012 VW Polo 1.2 TDI and running it for two years too.


sobanek
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2012-03-01 08:09:13

And it doesn't even have to be an M5. You can buy a 2002 525i and it will turn out even cheaper...


shane26
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2012-03-08 23:09:32

why are the gov. not taking the carbon tax off fuel when they plan on raising tax on low co2 emmission cars.

makes no sense.

 


Cassandra Syndrome
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2012-03-13 16:50:42

The biggest factor in the massive spike in oil prices recently is the fact that Central Banks have pumped $2 Trillion into the financial system in the past 6 months. 


vickers209
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2012-03-18 15:30:01

Petrol is now 20 CENT dearer than it was on the 1st of janurary this year and there is no sign of it stoping I got it on new years day for 145.8 in my local garage and now it 165 cant remember such a big jump in a short time


shane26
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2012-03-19 10:25:08

its such a pain in my pocket, i cant afford to buy a new car that has better fuel econ. because between wage cuts, increases in taxes and all the rest its just not there and i bet there are many people in the same sitution.

guys we need somebody to step up and take charge, we need a site where we can go and get signatures to give to the gov. demanding a reduction in the fuel prices.

or we should be in tanden with the taxi federation and trucks haulage ass. and the people of ireland be orangising a march in all the major cities and towns.

 


sobanek
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2012-03-20 18:09:06

20 March 2012
$124.09 for a barrel
€0.59 per litre before refined
€1.64 per litre of petrol

20 February 2012
$121.04 for a barrel
€0.57 per litre before refined
€1.59 per litre of petrol

How is a 2c difference a 5c difference?

20 January 2012
$114.66 for a barrel
€0.56 per litre before refined
€1.53 per litre of petrol

Now a 6c difference in 1c difference per litre

Something isn't right! I think the stations have set up a cartel and I think WE SHOULD DEMAND an investigation.

Prices according to the accurate EUR/USD currency histories.


shane26
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2012-03-20 18:27:37

i just miss the days when petrol use to be 99.9 per litre. today all i had in my pocket was a tenner got petrol just over 6 litres, come on give us a break, can garages start doing some loyalty schemes and specail offers on fuel, plz.

 


tarabuses
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2012-03-22 08:04:46

It depends on which station you use for comparisdon prices.  This morning I saw a 2c increase in pertrol and diesel at Topaz Taney while Applegreen Clonskeagh had reduced petrol by 2c!  Opposite movements on the same day?


sobanek
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2012-03-22 11:12:16

It's the average national price I used for the comparison!!


ricpw
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2012-03-22 17:40:04

Slight flaw there though, whilst the price of a barrel of oil has the biggest influence on the price of commodities such as petrol and diesel on the markets, you need to track the price of those commodities themselves on the markets on those dates, not the price of a barrel of oil. Petrol, diesel, gas, crude oil, are all commosidities in their own right and are traded as individual commodities on the markets.


tarabuses
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2012-03-24 17:42:53

The point I was making is that there is no consistency in pricing.  The dearest station one week can be the cheapest the following week.


ricpw
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2012-03-26 10:23:27

I was referring to sobanek's post, not yours. :)


tarabuses
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2012-03-27 07:52:02

So was I !


tarabuses
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2012-04-04 13:44:20

Anyone seen a petrol price of €1.70 yet?  Can't be far off.


shane26
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2012-04-04 15:48:55

yep, small station in roscrea co.tipperary at 169.9


symurf
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2012-04-04 16:34:31

good few garages in wicklow been at 169.9 for a while,


sobanek
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2012-04-04 18:53:46

Topaz in Newbridge, 169.9


tarabuses
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2012-04-04 20:31:43

I've seen the 169.9s but looking for a sighting at 170.


shane26
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2012-04-05 01:54:11

well if nything we should see small drop in the next few days


weathergossip
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2012-04-05 22:14:11

Sligo Pearse Road is 169.9c in a few stations


BobsforKenny
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2012-04-06 19:32:32

shane26
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2012-04-06 21:17:51

iam getting really sick of this, stations in ardee 159.9 for petrol and down the country 171.9. now i know we have heard the excuse of distance from refinerys and delivery cost but come on thats a crazy difference.

i was suppose to portsalon from roscrea next week, but in order to get there from my town at these prices it would cost €104 return , but at ardee prices its €96 now iam not really complaining about €8 but on the overall aspect of price differences.

oh ya and the price of it


BobsforKenny
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2012-04-08 13:19:49

connaugg
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2012-04-10 11:31:08

One station in Cashel, County Tipperary is charging 171.9 per litre of petrol!


vickers209
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2012-04-10 20:08:27

172.9 in ashford co wicklow since saturday


weathergossip
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2012-04-16 12:47:36

well they cannot use the price of oil as an excuse anymore coz it is going down and its 102 and 120

it was near 112 and 130

so that means the prices have to drop. already some people i know are walking and even cycling to the shop

but then again wait till they bring the bicycle tax in


RenP
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2012-04-16 14:31:18

Thats the usual process... prices goes up fast and comes down slowly...


vickers209
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2012-04-16 19:03:57

Any sign of a new price forcast??


shane26
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2012-04-18 16:49:34

ok so oil bottoming at just below $116.9 a barrel today the last time it hit the level the average price at my station was €155.9 p/l atm its 168.9 so we have to see a drop from all the reducations in the last week and soon it will get below that 160 mark.

why cant we use water in our cars.......

oh yeah just remembered give it a few years and it will probably cost more than petrol lol


mcaul
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2012-04-18 17:21:16

I'll do a little research and come up with a new forecast tomorrow. - Thankfully, due to some decent growth in business I don't have as much spare time on my hands these days as I used to.

As for shane26 - you have to take into account the exchange rate and also the seasonal fluctuations in refinery costs. (diesel is cheaper in summer, unleaded is dearer) And one day's price won;t make a difference, but the trend may have changed and that is good news.     


sobanek
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2012-04-18 19:23:48

Retail price of petrol went down 3 cents a litre today.


vickers209
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2012-04-18 22:08:57

diesel droped 3 cent today in local garage put petrol stayed same


sobanek
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2012-04-19 08:12:52

No price cuts here :(


vegoil
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2012-04-19 12:51:01

There was a meeting in Whitegate oil refinery this week where staff were informed that the price of petrol will be going up over the 2 euro mark this year.


sobanek
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2012-04-19 16:20:32

Source?


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