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2012-05-23 08:34:02

As we move into summer, the back has finally broken on the oil prices and the trend is most definitely down. The 2 cogs in the wheel are refineries who are charging more to refine the oil into fuel (expected as many of them were losing money and several went bust in past 12 months) and the US dollar which continues to strengthen (currently just over $1.26) and may move towards $1.20 if the eurozone crisis continues. The currency change has cancelled out $6 of the recent price drop when converted to Euro which is why €1.60 has not broken on the forecourt just yet.

But as they say, the trend is your friend and this one is definitely down. Look for average prices to stay a little above €1.60 for another week or two on petrol and look for about 1.52 on diesel.

 



shane26
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2012-05-23 10:10:34

is it just that refineries up there price in the summer or this a new standard they re setting? 

also i have to say it is nice to see the price of fuel coming down but its very disappionting to see that some towns around the country are being ripped off by price fixing from some station owners.( not saying there all bad, some are lovely :)  ) 

which such a price variance around the country also people are getting quiet annoyed with petrol stations and i know if they were all the same thats prices fixing then, but to have a driffrence of up to 10c in the space of a few miles is just crazy.

also i would like  to ask is there an alternative to petrol, can a car run on something else without conversion, does anyone know?

anyway happy motoring every1 and drive safe.


mcaul
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2012-05-23 18:17:57

shane26 - station owners are certainly not making money. Ever see a fancy car in their driveway? Some places get one delivery every 2 weeks, some get a delivery every 2 days. Prices vary, some brands add in a premium for special mixes. Some get special discounts from distributors to try and drive business in the short term. Some will sell at cost to drive people in to buy a sandwich.

But as for using the word rip-off, it simply does not apply to fuel stations unless they were WAY over the average price. Even if they were selling 30,000 litres a week (reasonably busy station) and had a 10c profit on a litre, (twice the average), that's just €3,000! For rent, rates, staff, driveaways, card commission, utilities etc! That's an extremely tight operation and that's at TWICE the average profit per litre, so shop sales HAVE to be added for a living to be made.


mcaul
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2012-05-23 18:22:46

as for the refineries - key it into google and read about it. Loads of info there about the different type of oil in summer, the annual shutdowns and demand driving costs up.


sobanek
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2012-05-23 21:21:32

You have to remember the most money they make is actually in the shop.


shane26
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2012-05-23 22:29:00

sorry if i seemed to be ranting i was just starting of with a question and the rest followed

but mcaul u seem queit knowledgable about this stuff, as my question above i couldn't find out if this was their new standard price or summer only. do u have any info? thx.

also i understand that stations have to pay they way also, a friend of mine has to stop selling fuel because theirs no profit in it for her as she cant buy enough of it and she gets charged more and she might even have to close the shop soon thats how bad things are.

so anyway iam not trying to be the bad guy that gives out all the time. 

great site guys, keep up the good work.

drive safe all :)


richiek
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2012-05-24 10:24:56

Over the last 2 weeks I have noticed 2 stations which aren't selling fuel anymore (plastic bags over the pumps) but the shops are still open.I think well see more of this as station owners get squuezed in the middle...


ramy2k
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2012-05-24 19:58:05

I accept that some petrol stations are making minimal profit on fuel but at the same time, they are cleaning up on other products that they sell....often 200-300% mark-up on supermarkets.

However, we need to be lobbying to drive down prices at the pumps on this site when oil prices have fallen by >$20/barrel for some time now. I accept that the strengthening of the dollar restricted some of the full effect of this.

But, I do firmly believe that a good proportion of filling stations are keeping their prices up and are only dripfeeding the reductions through. This is evident in certain suburbs in Dublin for sure.

Many businesses are only surviving at the moment and charge realistic prices for their products or services. In the prevous forecast thread, Mcaul mentioned that fuel would be circa 90 cent/litre if Brent Crude was $0/barrel. So this would effectively mean that a station selling petrol @ 1.70/litre (and there are still many around Dublin!) vs. another @ 1.60/litre is still selling petrol @ a 14% premium (0.10/0.70). In my humble opinion, this is ripping off the motorist. I simply don't buy the numerous excuses about their overheads. Even take 2 Esso stations, virtually identical overheads, identical forecourts, similar real estate rents and yet between 5 and 10 cent in the difference in price. It doesn't stack up.

Re: the 'additives' that are added. I know of two people who have worked in the oil industry and this is often a myth...invariably the fuel is all the same bar the gangsters that are selling green diesel and wrecking engines. I put the Topaz deal on fuel efficiency to the test as well. They're claiming an extra 24km/tank or 3% improved mileage from a fill. Ironically, I tested this out numerous times and it ended up returning less mileage on similar driving conditions.

Well done to the few stations who actually passed on the full reduction over the past 6-8 weeks.


vwaudi
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2012-05-25 08:50:02

I would have to agree with ramy2k. The petrol stations are nearly worse than the farmers crying the poor mouth. From driving around the country I noticed that not that many petrol stations have closed in the last 5 years so money definitely must be made somewhere. As far as I'm aware Garages only have to buy 70% of there fuel from their company i.e. ESSO, Topaz etc and they can source the other 30% from other sellers. So surely they would be sourcing cheaper fuel by whatever means possible i.e. Louth area.

Often on this forum there have been discussions regarding do we work off US oil prices or Brent oil but it has never been cleared up. Currently the price of Brent oil is 107$ and even with previous calculations provided on numerous occassions I still fail to understand how the exact figure of 1.60 euro is provided.


mcaul
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2012-05-27 19:02:21

vwaudi - the price breakdown is here http://www.pumps.ie/FAQPricesExplained.php 

In the USA, a gallon (US  Gallon is 3.8litres) costs $2.90 from the refinery before any taxes/costs are added. This equates to 58.8c per litre. The brent premium only adds about 5c. Base cost of petrol in europe is about 63.5c at present - then about 10c is for retail / distributor and the rest is taken in taxes.

 


vickers209
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2012-05-30 18:53:02

Down to $103 a barrel now so hope we see further drops at pumps in next few weeks


sobanek
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2012-05-31 08:20:22

And it's probably going to drop under $100 in the next two weeks (hopefully).


tarabuses
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2012-05-31 08:23:49

Unfortunately (or probably consequently) the euro is now down to $1.23.


shane26
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2012-06-01 19:37:02

oil starting to tumble hitting the $97 mark now and the euro climbing.

also whats taking the petrol pricing dropping, i now the euro has weakened but come on, i am still paying 1.61.9 at the moment.


tarabuses
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2012-06-01 20:47:45

That's a good price, Shane26, in these parts at least.


shane26
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2012-06-01 21:09:04

i suppose tara, what kind of prices are paying these days?

but we all agree i think prices should be lower, i wish my car ran on air, but surely the gov. would charge us for use of the air or something stupid.

latest update on oil prices its back up to $98 but its still a $3 drop in the day


sobanek
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2012-06-02 09:42:20

I'm starting to get annoyed at the prices explained section, because it always says the government takes 90c on a litre... Even when the average fell by 6c...

Oil at $98, but I suspect further drops before the US presidential elections.


mcaul
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2012-06-04 10:52:56

Sobanek - the only variable int eh government "take" is VAT - every other cent of the government "take" is fixed - so if oil was free and distributors and petrol retails wroeked for nothign and refineries refiend oil free too, the price at the pump would be as follows

Duty 58.8c incl carbon tax, NORA (nat oil reserves agency levy) 2c,

Total 60.8c

+ vat @ 23% 14c

Pump price - 74.8c

Current take is 91c as the vat element of the difference between 74.8c & 1.60 is  16.2c - this 16.2c is the only part of the tax that can change. 

 

 

 


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