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July Forecast
forecast
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2012-06-24 16:02:41

International prices continue their downward trend and this continues to dripfeed into pump prices. Last week drop will see average prices for petrol fall to about 1.54 in the next 10-12 days and diesel to about 1.44. - Watch out for the price agressive stations going sub 1.50 / 1.40 for petrol & diesel from next weekend (as predicted here on Pumps.ie on June 4th!!) 

The falling trend is set to continue and many analysts are suggesting oil prices will continue the downward trend in the coming weeks with targets in the $50 - $60 being the most prevalent.

As a ready reckoner - every $10 drop in oil prices based on  a $1.25 dollar rate, sees approx 7.5c (incl vat) reduction in pump prices. 

Finally, iIf Oil was $1, the pump price would still be about 95c a litre (Diesel 86c/litre) as the cost of refining, distribution, retail costs and taxes (excluding vat) remain relatively static.  



shane26
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2012-06-25 22:27:45

i think u might have the 8.5c to the $10 wrong. 

brent was at $126 and petrol was costing the lucky people €169.9 at that time. so based on that would petrol not be 29c cheaper at €140.9 


nedtango
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2012-06-26 10:24:15

Why do ppl always question the forecast but never have anything relevant to say? It's a forecast, just like the weather, it's not a definite.

I have no idea what point you are trying to make shane26!!


prof_frink
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2012-06-26 11:40:01

@nedtango - i second that!


mcaul
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2012-06-26 12:14:25

8.5c / $10 change is correct as per current pricing, current refinery cost and current dollar exchange rates.

If the dollar moves to 1.35, then the rate changes down, if the dollar moves to 1.15 the rate chages up, if the refineries start charging less/more for refining, the rate changes too.  (aka summer premium as explained to you in another post!!)

 

The pump price is made up of about 5 variables - not just the international oil price, though this is the biggest variable. 

 

   

 


suckingdiesels
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2012-06-26 12:14:37

in fairness to shane26 he is only pointing out a possible discrepancy in the calculation. Its a forum and everyone has the right to post


robert muldoon
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2012-06-26 12:29:43

The price  Topaz city west is incorrect, I called in there at 12.30 and price is 1.60.99 NOT 150.99


tarabuses
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2012-06-26 13:26:02

Then you should correct it.  Someone obviously input the diesel price for petrol.


vickers209
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2012-06-26 15:10:11

fixed that for ya!!

 


mcaul
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2012-06-26 15:58:36

actually it's about 7.5c difference each $10 makes - apologies, I did the other calculation using the US Oil price. (forecast corrected)


robert muldoon
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2012-06-27 07:53:23

Yesterday's spike in Brent , according to Reuters , is due to a strike on stat oil Norwegian north sea platforms which has reduced output to 150,000 bpd , very sparse news on this in the general media although it can have an effect on all our daily lives , although negative news from Brussels this weekend may counterterrorism act this


robert muldoon
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2012-06-27 07:55:46

Sorry misprint, counterterrorism should read counter act - so much for predictive!!!


nedtango
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2012-06-28 09:15:57

Congrats mcaul, we have a sub €1.50 station for petrol anyway!


ramy2k
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2012-06-28 09:54:36

Great to see many of the country stations passing on much of the drop in brent crude at the pumps but as per usual it's clear that most stations in dublin haven't passed on anything near the full drop.

Even to give these guys the benefit of the doubt with the 3-4 week time lag before price reductions translate at the pumps, many stations have dropped a mere 8 cents in petrol/diesel since peak. An example is Esso Cabinteely @ €1.699 for petrol for most of April and May and it dropped to €1.619 this week.

Euro-USD averaged around $1.30 for April and the first half of May and has strenghtened to $1.25 on average between the end of May to date. So the 7.5 cent/$10 drop predicted by Mcaul may shift marginally...perhaps 7.2 cent/$10 drop with the dollar differential.

So brent crude was circa $125/barrel @ $1.30 when they acquired their petrol back in May and sold it at €1.699/litre. Again giving them the benefit of the doubt, let's say they have only got their tanker load @ $105/barrel @ $1.25 this week. This should still correspond to a 14/15 cent drop, not 8 cent? It should also mean that a further (7.5 cent x 1.5 = 11 cent) should be passed on by the time they get to the €90/barrel stuff in 2 weeks time.

I wonder will they hold fire now that brent crude has risen from $89/b to $93/b.


mcaul
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2012-06-28 15:28:22

ramy2k - in fairness to the petrol stations they would love to have cheaper prices as it gets more people into their convenience stores. Oil price is only one part of the equation, I always use the refinery costs in calculations and refineries do have additional costs in summer for various reasons which lead to higher prices (or less of a reduction in this case)

If you did a world survey of petrol price forecourt movements, they'd all move at the same level - even the USA has only dropped by about 10c/litre since the high. 


ramy2k
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2012-06-28 16:10:08

@mcaul.....fair enough but it is still abundantly clear that many of these stations aren't passing on the full reduction even if one allowed for refinery costs. It just annoys me that prices can't be regulated and force some of these stations to pass on same. That said, I am sure that those charging a few cent lower for fuel are reaping the benefit in their stores versus the dearer stations. If you look at the UK (and I know that it's dearer for juice), there's a much lower differential in prices.

 


shane26
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2012-06-28 17:03:07

lol mccaul i thought u said u didnt own a petrol station, you have to be one of the most sympathetic people torwards petrol stations i know.

the fact is we are been ripped off.

FACT.


robert muldoon
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2012-06-28 18:20:02

And what are YOU going to do about it??


shane26
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2012-06-28 20:15:07

nothing, until i get into the dail.

but then i will be fat and rich and have the tax payers buying my petrol for me.lol ;)

but guys to be honest there are to many over priced stations with no excuse for their prices, look at topaz there is one in my town priced at 156.9 but 5 miles away there is another one priced at 158.9.

why?

beats the hell out of me, their both busy stations and do about the same trade.

as always iam just venting.

drive safe all :)


robert muldoon
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2012-06-29 08:49:15

Shane26, you don't have to get into the Dail to do anything, because you can't legislate what stations charge for fuel. I suggest you go to the stations involved and find out WHO decides their pricing policy and then talk to them, it can't be that difficult


mcaul
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2012-06-29 08:54:17

shane26 - I'm a business person, I employ 32 people and I can assure you the last business I would own is a petrol station. If you can find any I own, please feel free to let me know and I will pass the title deeds over to you. 

The fact that I understand the costs of business and have built up a knowledge of fuel retailing taht most station owners probably don't have and then choose to provide forecast here for absolutly no gain whatsoever, should not be used by imbeciles like yourself to spout sh1te that has no basis of fact.

I have tried to answer all the questions you have ever asked, given you links to the information, yet you still seem to have such a low level of understanding that you can only spout rubbish and conjecture - a sure sign of someone who lacks understanding.


mcaul
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2012-06-29 09:00:37

ramy2k - according to petrolprices.com (UK version of pumps.ie) the price variance is about 20p between lowest and highest.

Here, with the exception of a few garages at the higher and lower end of the scale, the prices variance is about 6c (5c+vat). In reality between distributor and retailer they have about 13c (10.5c+vat) to play with. Distributors will give short term support to garages where there is a price war, but its rare except in certain pockets like Newbridge and Tralee that the same arae is consistenly low throughout the year.

 

Newbridge and Tralee are different because you have very strong willed local retailers who fight for every cent and who have substantial other business interests in the area such as home heating oil & farm supply. Territory seems to matter more to them than making a profit and the consurmer in the area is a winner. But the normal business has to make a profit, otherwise it won't survive.   


ramy2k
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2012-06-29 09:54:14

Mcaul - I've driven extensively throughout the UK and have first hand experience of both countries in terms of service stations and can assure you that in the vast majority of cases you'll see no more than 2-3p difference in the prices. Of course, I am sure there may be extremes as you have noted and this will be exacerbated further once the laundered diesel gangsters expand their market globally...like airport fuels who cost me a grand last summer.

Yes, Newbridge, Tralee and a few more areas are consistently on the lower end of pricing but there are many instances where prices move in line with each other in certain areas throughout the country. For example, Applegreen & Esso near Mount Merrion Avenue on the N11 always change their prices simultaneously and both Esso stations further south are consistently 2-3 cent dearer...same overheads (possibly even lower)...etc. Then if you look at the Ballinteer area, prices are 5-6 cent cheaper again.

Many stations have only dropped 8 cent from peak as I mentioned above....and this doesn't correlate to 7.5cent/$10 drop in oil prices even if you allow for additional refinery costs (up to 6/7 cents). I don't know if you'll agree with me or not but it always seems that the reductions are much slower to be passed on than increases. It's fairly simple arithmetic.


robert muldoon
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2012-06-29 15:21:57

Anyway back to the real business, with todays news from Brussels , we have an increase of Brent of about 4$ and and a strengthening of eur , so what changes will all that inflict on us


ramy2k
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2012-06-29 18:50:33

indeed back up over $96......perfect chance to see will we see the benefits of brent crude trading @ $88-$90 for that week just gone by. We still haven't seen the reductions of brent below $105/barrel yet as far as I can see.


robert muldoon
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2012-06-29 19:57:29

Also the dollar/eur rate touching 1.27 may take some of the gloss off the increase, however it will be interesting to see how things settle down about say next wed, the Norwegian strike situation may show some positive developments


mcaul
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2012-07-01 10:56:33

On the positive side it seems the agreement in Brussells will have some great benefits for the economy and possibly see some real growth return and unemployment drop. The negative side was a huge one day jump in oil prices which means the expected forecourt drop next week will be temporary.

It will be very interesting to see whether oil resumes its downward trend next week or stabilises.

Refinery price for unleaded went from approx 53c on Wednesday to almost 57c (prices in euro)


shane26
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2012-07-01 22:22:04

mcaul can i ask you do you think if oil was to rise for the next 5 days would we see the reduction due next week at all?

also sorry if i throw alot of beef your way, i like to vent and dont mean to offend you or any1 here, i value your info and fair play to you for your work on these forumz :)


robert muldoon
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2012-07-02 07:36:23

Well done Shane , I must say this site has saved me a fortune over the years since I joined it, I live in Kildare where there is some of the cheapest fuel in the country.

Would it be possible to extend the service to heating oil?


robert muldoon
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2012-07-03 16:19:49

Are we at war or something, those f......ng Iranians have sent the market crazy again with their saber rattling , Brent now over 100$


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