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2012-07-04 10:52:30

The agreement at the European summit surprised many and has led to a spike in oil prices pushed on by geopolitical issues in Iran.

The fundamentals still suggest a lowering trend especially if Chinese economy starts to cool. However fundamentals don't always affect the oil market as they would a normal market.

The increase to $100 will mean that any short term reduction this week will be gone next week as refinery prices are at approx. 60.5c/litre for unleaded and 63c for diesel - leading to retail prices of circa 1.61 for unleaded (based on duties 59c, dist/retail 10c, vat @23%) and 1.50 for diesel  (based on duties 48c, dist/retail 10c, + vat @23%)



ramy2k
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2012-07-04 11:30:33

How convenient for them!

After looking at the trends of 10 random stations on this site (incorporating high & low), the drops from peak have averaged 10 cent (min 9c - max 12c). So as this doesn't equate to an oil price drop of $35 from $125 (28%....maybe marginally less with currency fluctuations). The average petrol price predicted (on 24/6) for this week of €1.54 (diesel €1.44) seems to be 5 cent lower than what we're seeing.

We can say that refinery costs have increased perhaps they have ..... but surely there was a fairly high refinery price when we were paying €1.70/l 6-8 weeks ago?

I'm now curious to see how fast we'll see the effect of the increase back to $100/b.......I still don't believe we're even currently benefiting from oil below this price.

Let's hope that the rises abate....was looking forward to paying €1.40 for legitimate diesel...but pigs might fly.


mcaul
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2012-07-04 22:41:03

ram2k - from doing this for 4+ years, i can absolutely assure you that the one thing fuel station HATE is high fuel prices. It ruins their trade, less people buy fuel, cos they drive less. Less people in their shop, less chicken rolls and coke sold.

The raw oil price is just ONE part of the price. Seasonality, refinery costs, currency rates all take their part too. What I give is purely a forecast on information widely available online - unfortunately exact european refinery prices afre not online, so I have to use educated guesses and like met eireann, the forecast won't always be 100% correct, but what it is there for is to show you the trend and a hoped for target price.  

Just like the front desk clerks in Ulster bank and their troubles, the last person to blame for the high price is the retail garage. - Evn the carbon levy is higher than the average retail take!


mcaul
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2012-07-04 22:51:24

also - exchange rate drop from 1.33 to 1.25 has to be applied to the entire $125 - not just the drop. and, when the price hit $125, I thought the fuel price would go to €1.73, but obviously that never fed through as the $125 level was short lived and $122 was the average price fro that 10 day period.

$122 @ exchange of 1.33 = €91.72

$93 @ exchange of $1.25 = €74.4

Difference in euro = 19%

Unleaded price at peak net of all costs and taxes = 69c

69c less 19% = 56c = forecourt price of 1.55


shane26
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2012-07-05 07:10:42

we all talk about iran and the dollar, but in america its differant.

they want heads to role over high oil prices and are blaming big companies for market manipulation on oil and foreign currency and i think there right.

i get sick to the teeth of hering 'oil rises on speculation'.

come on, we normal people suffering again over wall str. gamblers and billionaires playing there stupid games.

anyway pity to see it rise again.

drive safe all


mcaul
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2012-07-05 08:54:07

shane26 - the specualtors certainly do all the driving and Obama has been trying to implement rule - but the USA oil lobby is gigantic and he faces hurdles at every turn. So far the only thing that has got through is a limit on some margin (borrowing) requirements which come into effect on August 5th.

But the big one to watch is China - economy overheating, analysts saying it will have a "soft landing" - now where did we hear the "soft landing" phrase before! If China gets a cold, then prices will plummet.



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2012-07-05 12:11:53

Mcaul - how many excuses are you going to give the retail garages? If you say that they hate high prices so much, I would assume that they availed of the oil price when it was $88-$91/b for nearly a week (21/6 - 27/6). BTW, oil hovered around $125/b for a considerable amount of time in March/April http://www.oilnergy.com/1obrent.htm#6mo

I am fully aware that the drop in prices is not solely dependent on a drop in oil but it is the PRINCIPLE factor. I've factored in the exchange drop in any claims I've made.

$125/b @ 1.33 = €94/b

$89/b @ 1.25 = €71.2/b

This is a drop of just under 25%. If we use your base tax figures for petrol (95 cent) & diesel (86 cent). And that's trusting that these figures are the actual govt. tax base levels.

25% of (€1.70 - €0.95) = 19 cent meaning that the dear stations would be selling petrol @ €1.51/l whereas it's €1.60/l in these same stations this week if refinery price increases were irrelevant. Diesel prices show the same trend. Even if we take it as 19c +/2 cent with differences in exchange/oil price, then there's still a 7-11 cent difference that is allegedly made up with refinery price increases......i thought this didn't affect diesel?

So are you honestly saying to me that the other factors such as refinery price increases account for 9 cent in a 6-8 week period? Until proven otherwise, I firmly believe that that most of these stations take advantage and claw back a few cents/litre every time there is a decent drop in brent crude oil.

This is an excellent article by George Garvey in the indo....very relevant for struggling businesses so we all can't be wrong. http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/falling-oil-prices-not-being-passed-on-at-the-pumps-3145619.html


robert muldoon
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2012-07-05 19:28:33

Here's one for you

I was passing thru newbridge co Kildare the othe day , within 20 metres of each other, there were 2 petrol stations, one at 159 and the other 154. There were more cars getting petrol @ the 159 than the 154- explain that one, do people really care what they pay for fuel??


ramy2k
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2012-07-06 08:46:48

Might be cos they had to put new fuel pumps or injectors into their cars.....happened me last year.....i know the stations that you're talking about (Frasers/MCL/Topaz?) but don't think they're at the same racket...at least they weren't. Topaz will appear to be more reliable in terms of quality.

So particularly if you're buying diesel, there's apparently 12% of garages selling laundered diesel which is a f1cking disgrace as the poor motorist never gets reimbursed for their engine being destroyed and many of the station owners are cute to customs coming into dip them. I used to use the 'independent' garages but have backed off after being 1k out of pocket. Apparently, it's widespread now.


sobanek
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2012-07-06 09:47:19

My diesel Volvo with loads of new bullshit like DPF, MAF etc. which is a very sensitive engine has been fuelled by diesel from Fraser for the past 20 months. Not even a single mechanical issue in the past 20 months.


mcaul
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2012-07-06 09:53:43

and the Topaz garage there is owned by the same guy that owns the Topaz garage on kilkenny rd athy, which is consistently in the cheapest staion lists - but in Newbridge the rent is quite high and the fuel is secondary to teh Centra shop.

Also, a huge number of people have Topaz cards, so they pay a set price no matter what the sign at the station says.

Here's a chart showing the way refinery prices diverged from oil prices around Christmas and then came back together since April - http://www.profitquotes.com/cgi/?a=chart&ticker=%2FRB_C%2C%2FCS_C&title=1+Year+Growth+Comparison&period=1yp

 

It shows Nov - Feb that increases in refinery prices underscored increases in oil prices by as much as 15% and many refineries were losing money (some even went bust) from late March onwards, the difference narrowed and more recently the refinery increase have outweighed the oil price increases. - Hence the reason why we cannot take the raw oil figure as a correct guide to what fuel should be at the station. It can only be used as an indicator. 

 

 

   


mcaul
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2012-07-06 11:50:59

ramy2k - be very very careful about mentioning actual names of garages unless you ahve absolute proof. - this is a public forum and when you say things they are in public domain and a false accusation or accusation without absolute proof can end up being very expensive.

I've sent email to Jon to edit the post just to be on the safe side.


ramy2k
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2012-07-06 12:25:28

mccaul - I actually have proof and have tested my tank fuel samples and am fairly f4cked off with it in that they got away with it. The stations themselves know well trust me. Edit if you wish but I feel that they only way to tackle this growing problem is to name and shame. Fuel pump on my car cost €800, fuel samples €170. And if it damaged the fuel injectors, I was looking @ €2.5-3k! How else do people know that they are buying reliable fuel?


mcaul
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2012-07-06 13:14:10

Fair enough if you are happy that what you have can stand up in court, but I'd be ultra wary of publishing names along with such accusations - even if they were true.

It would be fairer and better to say that the majority of stations prosecuted for such offences are independent and therefore you need to be wary of independent garages that sell fuel cheaply.  


ramy2k
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2012-07-06 13:35:33

Yeah I know what you're saying. I made sure I got a sample of their fuel at the pump as well so that I could compare.....some of these punters are experts at dodging the authorities I found out. For anyone who suspects that they got dodgy diesel, it's generally a dark green colour....darker than the usual green. It really inconveniences you as well....my motor was off the road for almost a month as I waited for delivery of the fuel pump. Suspected the same thing might be happening again after a fill up in Tipperary recently...luckily it was an egr that needed cleaning.


robert muldoon
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2012-07-06 15:31:00

The main reasons the speculators had this week were:

1. The threat that the Iranians would close the gulf of Hormuz 

The chances of that I think are pretty slim as the USA would low them out of the water and I don't think they would wait for permission of Russia and china to do that

2. The Norwegian platform strike. The Norwegian gov are about to put an end to that, it was never going to last long

3. The ECB rate. This was well factored in. So no surprises there

4. Then we have good news/bad news from china and USA every second day so they cancel each other out., and the overall bad news about eu economy

So after all that, the prices hav to start falling again


shane26
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2012-07-06 21:33:53

great artic. here, just shows what us everyday person is up against

http://seekingalpha.com/article/172797-the-global-oil-scam-50-times-bigger-than-madoff


mcaul
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2012-07-07 00:18:23

and an even bigger scam is european governments who take up to 65% of the forecourt price in taxes (here its about 57%)

but whilst that article is very much gung ho, it is quite correct - oil is traded at multiples of the amount actually available and its frankly all a game. Most commodities such as sugar, corn, wheat and evn orange juice are tarded on demand and supply and are affected by weather and harvests and poples tastes, but oil is at the whim of the newsreel. Its totally wrong, but we can't do anything about it!


vickers209
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2012-07-07 15:40:30

Noticed a local garage has increased diesel 1 cent yesterday petrol remained same think it time to fill up as price already goin back up!!


vickers209
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2012-07-08 23:24:34

Petrol gone up 3 cent in topaz kilmac today 166.9 while esso across road 158.9


tarabuses
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2012-07-09 08:29:56

Topaz have done the same in Donnybrook and Goatstown.  Up 3c for petrol and 2c for diesel to 163.9 and 152.9 respectively this morning.  Prices seem to come down gradually but jump up more dramatically.


sobanek
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2012-07-09 08:55:37

Diesel and petrol gone up 3 cents in Newbridge on Fraser.


ramy2k
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2012-07-09 10:18:11

Same story with Topaz Killiney...jumped 3 cent to 163.9/l for petrol this morning, yet Maxol in Sallynoggin around the corner are still selling petrol for 1.579/l...no flies on them with their immediate increases.


robert muldoon
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2012-07-09 13:06:02

The Norwegian strike might get worse before it gets better, the gov didn't step in over the weekend as was expected by Reuter , I would be surprised if it goes on much more than this week


robert muldoon
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2012-07-09 13:14:06

I saw this 



** Norway faces oil output shutdown **
Oil and gas production in Norway, one of the world's biggest energy exporters, will be shutdown from Tuesday after talks over pensions broke down for a third time.


mcaul
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2012-07-09 16:59:05

Currency changes only take a couple of days to feed in as imported items are normally purchased "at sight" - this applies to all sorts of goods, not just fuel. So the drop in the euro by 3c last week is mainly to blame for rises on Friday. Expect another cent or 2, but the trend is still down and you'll always see little spikes in prices in the same way we saw small reductions every now and then as prices moved to 1.70.

Regarding Topaz - most Topaz are totally independent operating under franchise and each garage sets his/her own price.

 


robert muldoon
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2012-07-09 17:13:57

Mcaul, doesn't that even make it more strange that they all move at the same time, if it was Esso I could understand it, I feel somebody is orchestrating the price


vickers209
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2012-07-09 19:03:19

all bar one garage on my watchlist went back above 1.60 today


ramy2k
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2012-07-09 21:15:22

Topaz Killiney jumped by 3 cents and Applegreen Ballybrack by 1 cent on the same day. I saw the tanker in both stations on the same day. Oil obviously secured at the same price/currency/time yet one station decides on a 2 cent premium....same variables? Yep, I think you're on the money with Topaz stations setting their own prices. There is about a 12 cent range between the highest and lowest Topaz stations on this site.


robert muldoon
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2012-07-10 08:18:08

Norwegian strke over, and oil falling, it will be interesting to see what the speculators grab onto now to keep the prices up. The Iranian retoric seems to be milder but there is some talk of them imposing a levy on tankers going thru str of Hormuz


tarabuses
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2012-07-10 08:32:55

The only 3c increases I have seen this week are in Topaz.  Others have increased by 2c and a couple still to make any increase.  The difference may only be 1c but it is a 50% higher increase than the others.


mcaul
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2012-07-10 14:43:29

Ramy2k - Tankers are usually operated by independent companies, just like any supply truck. Each tanker has serveral compartments that can hold varing amount of fuel. Some of this is Topaz, some is Esso, some is applegreen etc. Then within a company different pricing will apply depending on overall volume and volume per delivery - same as home heating, 500 litres cost more per litre than 1000 litres. In some cases one tanker can visit all fuel stations in a town, but deliver different branded fuels.

Robert - most busy stations get 2/3 deliveries a week, so changes happen often and as stations in same area get delivery at same time (see above) prices change at the same time.

Trend is still down, so I wouldn't worry about a slight short-term increase.

 


hulkie
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2012-07-10 15:38:18

Mcaul, it seems the whole thing is bucked!

http://www.fxcentre.com/news.asp?2961225

Refining problems gonna drive diesel through the roof as well as a weak euro.


ramy2k
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2012-07-10 15:56:51

Mcaul - If you say so but would a tanker operated by an independent company not be 'logoless'. In this case? The Applegreen tanker was unloading @ the Applegreen station and the Topaz one @ the Topaz station.....I've never seen a Topaz tanker offloading fuel @ an Applegreen or vice versa though but if you're saying this happens in the industry fair enough.

I guess my main point is that 2 stations a stone's throw away from each other increased their prices yesterday morning, one by 1 c and the other by 3c and I'd suspect the simultaneous increase would suggest that they purchased oil @ the same time/price/rate.


mcaul
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2012-07-11 14:20:08

Maguire Intl, reynolds & Wincanton are 3 of the main delivery companies. Possibly they also have some of their own tankers, though from a business perspecive it would make no sense as these tankers need to be on the road 7 days a week in order to pay for themselves.

From Reynolds site - "The distribution of bulk fuels is now the largest part of the Reynolds Logistics’ business and includes some of Ireland’s leading fuel companies among its clients.

The company has been chosen, for instance, by both Topaz Energy (formally Irish Shell) and TOP as their preferred logistics supplier, with long-term contracts to deliver all the fuels to their service stations, airport depots and commercial customers nationwide. The company also services Maxol customers nationwide and a number of ConocoPhillips customers from their refinery in Cork."

  


mcaul
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2012-07-11 14:24:16

hulkie - good find. This is what the forum si about. Firstly knowing whether to fill up this week or not and secondly realising how many factors make up the pump prices and how changes or issues with one factor can lead to a change in price even though oil prices stay the same. And thirdly, knowing the fuel retailer make eff all out of fuel. 


100000935919036
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2012-07-11 22:25:15

jonnybangbang
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2012-07-12 11:17:24

ramy2k in your example of the two stations getting fills on the same day but moving different amounts. Your assuming that the tanks were empty in the forcourts?

Do you know how much fuel was delivered to each station. One could of gotten 20,000 lites the other could of gotten 2,000. 

We don't know how much fuel was already in the tanks? or when this fuel was bought and at what price? in my example the station that got the 20,000 litres could of been empty and the price difference was 3cpl from last time. but the other station that got 2,000 litres could of had 17,000 litres already in the tank . the new fuel bought may be 3cpl also but the additional cost to sell would only be 1cpl. 

what i'm trying to show is that its very possible for a tanker to go in to two different stations on the same day and the price to move differently as not all things are equal.    


ramy2k
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2012-07-12 13:14:27

johnnybangbang - i suppose this could be possible in places but it doesn't stack up in this instance i'm afraid. Seen the tanker in both stations within a day of each other over the last couple of months and both stations have very similar volumes of cars refilling daily...so they could be refilling @ different volumes occasionally but not consistently...in fact I have a source who works there. Anyway, Topaz have dropped by 2 cent today again - all things equal, this looks like their large increase on monday didn't work as other stations applied reasonable 1 cent increases. Oil price hasn't really budged much in this timeframe either.


mcaul
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2012-07-13 13:53:40

But as the fuel in each station is from a different supplier, you'd also need to know the different cost price, different terms of trade and different volume deals each station has. - (A large tanker has about 5 different compartments, so in theory one tanker could have Maxol, TOP, applegreen, Topaz & Esso fuel in it and deliver to five stations in same town)

Also, one station may wish to work on lower margins that the other. That's their perogative and shows heathy competition.


RenP
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2012-07-13 14:00:27

I am also seeing a trend of stations changing from Topaz and Texaco to applegreen, top and other independent stations... Any comments on these


cartman51773
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2012-07-13 14:22:57

can i ask why the petrol and diesel has spiked by 6 cent in Ashbourne meath when down the Road in Drogheda its now cheaper than Ashbourne. Seems very strange to me


mcaul
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2012-07-16 13:02:33

cartman - check 7 posts up by Hulkie for a link to article explaining diesel rises.

For Diesel users, refinery prices are up about 66-67c a litre, so expect a rise to about 1.55 this week when taxes, vat and margins are factored in. Petrol is more subduded and prices will only rise a cent or so.

If you see 1.48 or lower, take advantage quickly as I think this rise will start taking affect quickly as the refinery price rose early last week. 


cartman51773
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2012-07-16 14:12:21

Hi Macaul

 

i know that the prices are on the up but last week it was 153.9 for unleaded in Ashbourne and 1.59 in Drogheda however now its 159.9 in Ashbourne and 1.56 in drogheda. this is what has me puzzled

 


robert muldoon
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2012-07-16 21:32:00

Brent seems to going thru the roof again up to 103 this pm and still rising, and even the analysts can't agree on the reasons why. The US shot at a power boat off Dubai and the speculators think WW3 is going to break out, also they believe a Chinese gov stimulus is about to happen  , as everybody who count is talking down the global economy, the speculators don't want to hear it , bring on war, they say


mcaul
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2012-07-17 18:32:58

The basic fundamentals of the market should have oil at $50, but basic fundamentals simply don't come into play with oil, hence forecasting what it will be in 2 weeks / 2 months is impossibe. If some Iranian general sneezes, the price could jump $10 - its almost as crazy at that.

We're now at $105 and a dollar rate of 1.22 - refinery price for diesel seems to have gone over 67c / litre and unleaded 63c.

Add in duties, taxes and margins and the forecourt price will average  1.64 for petrol and 1.56 for diesel probably by next week, with most of the rise by this weekend.

 

  


sobanek
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2012-07-23 07:47:38

We're at $107 now and the dollar strenghtened up even more: $1.21.


robert muldoon
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2012-07-23 16:18:22

Heading down to 103. God only knows how long this down spiral will last, a lot of negative talk on Greece, Italy and Spain , but then someone will start spouting about the Gulf of Hormuz and the whole thing can go the other way


shane26
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2012-07-23 19:51:49

i dont think the big concern is the price of oil at the moment, we have to luck at the strenght of the dollar vs the euro.

people say the euro is safe, but the way it is buckling to the dollar at the moment it could very well collapse.

france are now heading for higher than expected borrowing rates and looks set to be down graded in the next week or so, italy are broke so are spain are greece are dead in the water. 

there are also talks about greece being kicked out again, if that happens we could then get a 2 tiered euro.

anyway as robert said tomorrow iran could bloke the gulf and everything will flip the other way.

who nows.

drive safe all


robert muldoon
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2012-07-23 20:29:55

Yes, it's going to be a very volatile week, more so than usual

 


mcaul
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2012-07-25 09:23:45

Nice to see the 2 day spike to $109 didn't feed into retail prices and it looks fairly steady for next couple of weeks as circa 1.54 for diesel and 1.62 for unleaded 


KnockKnock
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2012-07-25 10:45:52

Euro/dollor trend over last 5 years http://chartoasis.com/forex/1/eur_usd/5_years.html

 

Aver petrol price historical from AA website http://www.aaireland.ie/aa/motoring-advice/~/media/Files/AA%20Ireland/Reports/Fuelprices%20history_July%202012.ashx

 

Hard to see how the strength of the dollor affects the price at the pumps !!!!


robert muldoon
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2012-07-25 20:12:00

Do the speculators actually take August off like everybody else? I don't think so


jonnybangbang
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2012-07-26 13:30:06

Hi @Knockknock . Nice links. In answer to your question Diesel/unleaded/crude are traded on the stock exchange as commodities  in Dollars. The exchange rate comes into effect  when these comodities are sold in the Euro zone.

 


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