Over the past 6 months and also in the near furture, brent oil prices have remained very stable and mostly within a $5 deviance from $110.  This has been one of the most stable period for oil prices for many years, yet in the past 6-8 weeks the forecourt prices have risen by 10c-12c.

But before blaming the hardpressed forecourt owners who take an average of just 5c cut of the €1.55 average we are currently paying lets see what has happened since October.

1. The Budget. - Added 1.4c petrol / 1.6c diesel to carbon tax on Dec 6th, it also added 2% vat on Jan 1st. - Total extra taxes approx 4.5c / litre

2. US Dollar / Euro. All through the summer and up til October, the average exchange rate was about $1.43 / €1. Yesterday it dropped below 1.27 - that's an 11% difference in just 3 months and a good chunk of the drop was from end of November. Fuel is bought in US dollars, so this added 11% to the ex tax price of fuel (approx 60c unleaded / 62c diesel) - about 6.5c + of course vat @23% making 8c.

So 8c of the recent increases are attributed to currency moves and 4.5c due to tax hikes - makes a total of 12.5c increase from the October averages of 1.43 & 1.45.

And with oil prices still stable and not looking to move much in the near term, the only potential change in prices will come from the exchange rate between the US dollar & the Euro. In the short term, this may bring some relief, but most commentators are suggesting mid 1.20's as the exchange rate in the medium term.    

Prices still relatively stable. Difference between Brent & WTI (US) oil is down to $10 (was at $25), so forecasting prices is a little easier. US prices seem to have difficulty at the $100 level which bodes well for continued stability in prices.

The weakening of the euro though is feeding into pumps with small rises of 1c - 2c noticeable. Expect average price for both diesel & unleaded to be about 1.48 - 1.50.

It will be interesting to see whether the budget adds anything to fuel - personally I don't think it will as it will increase use of washed fuel and the 2% vat increase will add 3c per litre anyway.

Brent oil prices have remained relatively stable over the past few weeks. Also the difference between the lower quality US oil and Brent has become smaller.

We don't see any particular event that will cause any changes in the current price range, so its really as is for the time being with the bias still being towards slight lowering of prices. 

Diesel has risen recently as demand for diesel fuel always increases in the winter and the refinery changes its charges to reflect that.  

Many will ahve seen the dollar/euro go from $1.45 to $1.37 in the past couple of weeks. This will feed into pump prices this week as fuel is paid for upon delivery at port, so currency swings only take 3-5 days to feed into pumps.

On the oil market, Brent has dropped a little to $110 so the overall change will be a small increase of about 2c at the pumps and then steady towards the end of the month.  

Oil price falling and the US dollar weakening slightly. The combined affect should see prices starting to come down next weekend with the main drop the following weekend.

Assuming brent crude stays below $105 and the dollar stays about $1.43/€1, we can look forward to about 8c drop in pump prices down to 1.42 for unleaded and 1.34 for diesel.

If some comentators are to be believed, brent prices could fall to the low $80 level. - Just in time for the heating oil season! 

Despite every world economic sign pointing to a required drop in oil prices, the market simply continues to be overpriced.

Combined with the probable start of a period of a stronger dollar will see near record highs at the fuel pumps yet again. 

Based on current brent price of $116 and a $1.40 dollar, it is forecast that pump prices will rise to €1.55 - €1.57 for unleaded and €1.46 - €1.48 for diesel by month end, with a good bit of the rise coming this weekend.  

A gradual softening of prices is currently underway and its combined with a relatively rangebound euro/dollar exchange rate.

Brent is currently at $111, down from $119 last week, hence we should see small reductions at the pumps over the next couple of weeks.

Mid-term, it looks like a meaningful gradual downward path has commenced which gives hope for lower fuel costs over the coming months. 

Prices have steadied after the see saw action of the past 2 weeks. The drop to $105 was very short lived but at least the up trend seems to have stopped. A stronger dollar has taken some of the price reductions, but we forecast that forecourt prices will drop below the €1.50 mark for unleaded and close to €1.40 for diesel from next week and stay relatively steady going into early June. 

The continuing weakness of the dollar has softened the higher oil prices and with winter over, diesel refinery prices have dropped back below unleaded prices.

By my calculations USA refinery prices are running at 58c for diesel & 60c for unleaded. European prices should theorectically be about 3c higher due to higher brent oil prices however this calculates to a forecourt price of €1.44 for diesel & €1.59 for unleaded.   

I suspect some cross subsidisation of pricing or european refineries charging more for diesel and less for unleaded due to the higher motoring demand for diesle over here. So best guess is diesel will remain steady or drop back just a little and unleaded to increase to €1.55+ 

Very little change in the market. Oil prices steady but high and until there's a resolution of Libiya and market is sure other gulf states won't kick off, prices will remain close to these levels with average for petrol at 1.53 and diesel dropping a little due to seasonal factors to 1.43

My guess is there's also a little cross subsidisation on prices as refinery+duty prices suggest that there should be approx 11c incl vat difference between petrol & diesel however at the pumps its less than 4c in most cases, but petrol is 3 / 4 c below best estimates and diesel is 3 / 4 c above. With a near 50/50 split in the use of each fuel, it evens out the price.

Tensions in the Gulf have seen continued increase in oil prices over the past 2 weeks with Brent now at $116. Refnery prices are currently at approx 60c for unleaded and 65c for diesel which means that pump prices will continue their upward trajectory and will reach approx €1.56 for unleaded and €1.49 for diesel by mid month.

Prices continue to move upwards due to a range of forces from closure of coal mines in Australia to closure of oil lines in Alaska and pent up demand from China.

Currently Brent Crude is trading at its highest level for over a year and taking exchange rate into consideration prices are at a level not seen since 2008.

This means further increases at the pumps with refunery prices currently at 53c for petrol & 56c for diesel. Add in the duties & vat and we're going to be knocking on the door of €1.50!! (ouch)

For diesel, the price will be close to 1.40  and home heating will sail past €800 oer 1000 fill.

And as for medium term pricing, unless something gives, there's no real sign of a softening in the market as of yet.

A trio of price increasing items have hit at the same time, to push retail prices close to record levels.

Yet another tax increase, increasing world prices and a strengthening dollar are all contributiing to a estimated 1.42 retail price in the next couple of days. And as stations usually only have 3 / 4 days supply in their tanks, excpect the budget changes to take effect very quickly.

As of today the following is the price calculation for fuel

Unleaded - Cost of fuel 48c /litre, Duty/carbon levy/carbon tax 60c/litre, retail & distribtor costs & profit 10c/litre, vat 25c/litre

Total retail price = 1.429

Diesel - cost of fuel 51c/litre, taxes, levies 50c/litre, retail & distributor 10c/litre, vat 23.4c/litre, total forecourt price = 134.4

As of current world market conditions, there does not seem to be any respite and oil will continue to trade at or near current levels.

And these are AVERAGE prices, so the target is to find stations below this for best value. 

Thankfully the oil price increase seem to have stopped and started a reverse. However the stengthening US dollar will eat most of the oil price reductions.

Currently we are seeing price increase at the pumps which reflect both recent currency changes and the higher oil prices in the first half of the month. These incraese look to be temporary and prices will drop back to early month levels of 1.32 for petrol & 1.26 for diesel at end of month.

Going further ahead - analysts are split on whether this is a short term price drop or the start of a longer term reduction in oil prices. On the bullish (higher oil) side they are stating in their favour robust growth in emerging markets, the US quantitive easing programme & the improving US jobs market. On the bearoish side (prices lower) they have in their favour the current european banking problems (that will be us), sluggish growth generally in Europe and no definitive sign of real growth int he US. - Who will win out is anybody's guess.

Despite the increase in oil prices, the continued weakness in the US dollar has staved off any major changes at the pumps and we forecast a continued steadiness in prices over the next couple of weeks with a slight increase bias for petrol.

The oil market itself is still poised for a big drop if the various analysts and technical data is to be believed, though the technical pricing will be out the window if the price breaks above $84 and this would inidicate further rises. However the general consensus is that prices are at a peak and a downtrend will set in sooner rather than later.

Current price action is very choppy and oil prices and currency prices are volatile within a 5% parameter. In addition brent oil, which is the main supply for the european market is at a $4 premium over New York prices.

At the pumps this will translate into higher prices in the short term of 1.31 for petrol & 1.25 for diesel. For home heat oil, prices will be in region of €650/1000 litres

The mid term technical forecast still suggests prices will fall dramatically over the coming months, but obviously other events can cause changes to this.

World oil prices continue to be under pressure and the euro / dollar rate seems to be holding near the 1.27 level. We should see pump prices move down over the next couple of weeks to about 1.27 for petrol & 1.20 for diesel on average.

The even better news is that market commentators think this is the start of a much larger drop in prices and that a oil price in the $50-$55 range is a distinct possibility in the medium 3 month term. Due to taxes & duties, this would not mean a gigantic price drop at the pumps but would mean prices at about €1.12 per litre / diesel & €1.05 for petrol.  

The recent oil price move to $83 seems to have set a top and the market is expecting prices to commence a sustained downward trend over the coming weeks. Currently there are small rises in pump prices due to the oil price rise at the end of July, but this has been tempered by a rise in the Euro.

Refinery prices have fallen back to about 42c / litre for unleaded, but diesel has remained higher at 45c probably due to the fact diesel is in far more demand in China / India where economies are booming again.

This leads to average forecaourt prices hovering around the 1.31 level (possibly a little higher initially and then back) for petrol & 1.24 for diesel over the coming 2 weeks.

On home heating oil (winter's coming) I'd hold off and see whether the much heralded drop in prices becomes a reality.

Refinery prices have remained steady and the possibilty of a substantial drop in oil prices over the next couple of months remains. Current average refinery prices are 42c for petrol & 43c for diesel.

Expect pump prices to move slightly lower to 1.32 for petrol & 1.23 for diesel. Shopping around will see up to 5c off these levels in some areas.

Oil prices continue to fluctuate, but the higher line continues to drop, so its a case of 2 steps lower and one step higher. Pump prices are dropping back slowly and petrol prices should average about 1.31 and diesel prices about 1.22 within the next couple of weeks.